Asset Class Views

Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2022

Anticipating subtrend growth well into 2023, we remain neutral duration and overweight cash. We underweight equities, expecting meaningful earnings downgrades. We take a neutral stance on credit, with a clear preference for investment grade over high yield.

Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2022

Recession is our base case scenario, at 50%. We raised the likelihood of Crisis to 15% while lowering Sub Trend Growth to 30% and Above Trend Growth to 5%. We’re using market rallies to reduce our interest rate exposure and credit risk. Our best idea: high quality, short-dated cash flows.

Global Equity Views 3Q 2022

Though global equity markets are already down more than 20% this year, our portfolio managers remain cautious. In a downturn, quality matters, in managements and balance sheets.

Factor Views 3Q 2022

Despite a volatile Q2, most factors maintained their strong performance from the previous quarter. Equity value remained the best-performing factor while macro factors were mixed. We maintain a positive outlook on equity factors, supported by wide spreads.

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