Asset Class Views

Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2023

The economy faces slightly subtrend growth, with risks in both directions. We maintain a duration overweight, upgrade equity to neutral, remain neutral on credit and keep a slight overweight to cash. As stock-bond correlations follow inflation lower we favor selectively adding more risk-on positions.

Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2023

Recession and Sub Trend Growth are now our equal-weighted base cases at 50% each. We reduced the probability of Recession by 5% and increased the likelihood of Sub Trend Growth by 10%. Our top pick: short-duration securitized credit.

Global Equity Views 3Q 2023

Our portfolio managers are modestly positive on markets. Despite high valuations, we think it is too early to take a stance against the AI winners. We prefer quality stocks across sectors, but the most obviously defensive stocks look overpriced.

Factor Views 3Q 2023

Factor performance remained broadly positive despite a quarter of twists and turns. Macro carry factors enjoyed their second best quarter since the global financial crisis. Equity factors, especially value, look well supported by current valuations.

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