Guide to the Markets: Daily edition
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Key themes for 2Q 2025
The torrent of policy announcements in the US is creating considerable market volatility. Evidence that elevated uncertainty is damaging business confidence (Guide to the Markets – EMEA pgs 12, 13, 21) might eventually dictate a more moderate agenda from the US administration, but there are risks around that view. Meanwhile, Europe has been galvanised into action with meaningful fiscal support which should boost growth prospects for years to come (pg 31). Underneath the geopolitical noise, it is clear the fabric of the global economy is changing, with significant consequences for the distribution of growth and potentially inflation.
Overlaying the economic shifts, there are significant movements at the sector level. US tech stocks have seen some moderation in valuations (pg 52), while defensive sectors have been outperforming. Understanding the composition of different regional benchmarks (pg 46), as well as the macro backdrop, is important for navigating markets.
Investors should avoid being thrown around by headline volatility and chopping and changing positions (pg 92, 95). Geographical diversification is critical (pg 43). A healthy balance of fixed income assets can insulate the portfolio from recession risk (pg 65), but it is also important to consider assets that can thrive should higher inflation be the ultimate outcome (pgs 76, 77).
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