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  3. Market Insights Overview

Many moving parts

The re-election of Donald Trump is likely to have far-reaching consequences beyond the US. Domestically, the incoming President will almost certainly introduce more fiscal stimulus, meaning governments elsewhere, notably in Europe and China, will have little choice but to follow suit to offset any negative economic effects stemming from aggressive trade policy.

At face value, risk markets may continue to cheer the prospect of such ’pump-priming’, so we think a pro-risk stance remains sensible. However, it is imperative investors consider the downside risk that geopolitical hostilities lead to a fall in corporate confidence and recession, as well as the risk that inflation re-emerges and pushes bond yields higher.

The cross currents of taxes and tariffs

Prior to the election, the US economy appeared to be moderating as pandemic-related household savings were run down. The labour market in particular was showing signs of cooling, but in a reassuringly orderly fashion. The fact that the majority of households and corporates were dealing so well with higher interest rates was an encouraging sign of the underlying health of the US economy. With cooling activity came a reduction in inflationary pressures and the prospect of potentially significant monetary easing.

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Explore the Investment Outlook

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Pushing the Boundaries

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Market Insights Team

Karen Ward

Chief Market Strategist, EMEA

8 years with J.P. Morgan
22 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Tilmann Galler

Global Market Strategist

18 years with J.P. Morgan
24 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Maria Paola Toschi

Global Market Strategist

17 years with J.P. Morgan
40 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Hugh Gimber

Global Market Strategist

6 years with J.P. Morgan
12 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Aaron Hussein

Global Market Strategist

2 years with J.P. Morgan
6 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Maximilian McKechnie

Global Market Strategist

5 years with J.P. Morgan
5 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Natasha May

Global Market Analyst

3 years with J.P. Morgan
4 years in the Industry
View Full Profile

Zara Nokes

Global Market Analyst

3 years with J.P. Morgan
5 years in the Industry
View Full Profile
Karen Ward

Karen Ward

Chief Market Strategist, EMEA

Tilmann Galler

Tilmann Galler

Global Market Strategist

Maria Paola Toschi

Maria Paola Toschi

Global Market Strategist

Hugh Gimber

Hugh Gimber

Global Market Strategist

Aaron Hussein

Aaron Hussein

Global Market Strategist

Maximilian McKechnie

Maximilian McKechnie

Global Market Strategist

Natasha May

Natasha May

Global Market Analyst

Zara Nokes

Zara Nokes

Global Market Analyst

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The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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