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Currency

Stay up to date on the latest thoughts from our Currency Management Group

EXPLORE THE LATEST

A brighter outlook for 2021 for EMFX

We believe the rollout of a vaccine is likely to have the greatest influence on financial markets in the first quarter of 2021. Periods of growth recovery are historically associated with a weaker US dollar, particularly vs. cyclical and emerging market currencies (EMFX). With favourable valuations, flows into EMFX could be significant.

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A case for renminbi exceptionalism

The renminbi has led the positive performance of Asian currencies against the US dollar over the past quarter amid a tenuous recovery across global emerging market currencies.

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The Canadian dollar: Well positioned to participate in future Dollar weakness

The Canadian dollar has been a laggard amongst developed market currencies this year, falling sharply against a strong dollar as the market searched for safe assets at the peak of the COVID crisis.

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Assessing the outlook for EURUSD in a post-Covid world

We look at some of the potential options for investors to determine an appropriate hedging strategy and mitigate the impact of currency movements.

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Is hedging leading to an alpha opportunity for the yen?

​The Japanese yen has been a popular currency to own during over the past few months by virtue of its negative correlation with equities.

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Finding value in passive hedging

The increased level of interest rate volatility in the currency swap market has received considerable attention from market participants.

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Outlook for the Pound as the Brexit Deadline Approaches

Our long standing view on the pound has been that it is not as cheap as widely perceived despite the fall related to Brexit.

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Tracking funding stress in currency markets

Currency markets have experienced some of the volatility and unusual pricing dislocations seen in broader asset markets in recent weeks.

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The euro as a funding currency

A couple of key trends in capital flows suggest the role of euro funding is growing, and we outline the near-term implications for currency markets.

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Market misconceptions on Scandinavian currencies

Since the start of 2013, consensus forecasts for the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone have been persistently bullish and persistently wrong.

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What would a Conservative government mean for sterling?

With current general election polling consistent with a victory for the Conservative Party, the pound has outperformed over the last few months.

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Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think

We believe the US dollar is currently experiencing a rare structural change in valuation level that means it may be far less overvalued than is widely believed.

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Currencies through an ESG lens

We believe a well-designed, tailored approach to using ESG factors for active currency management can be a source of added value for clients over the long term.

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A possible change in chinese currency policy?

The renminbi’s weakness has become more idiosyncratic and closely linked to Chinese policy decisions rather than reflecting broader regional trends.

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Why is the potential for US currency intervention a topic of interest?

The probability of US unilateral intervention has risen from a tail scenario to one of low-to-moderate probability.

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Will the dollar continue to underperform?

How the dollar trades following the cut in rates, depends to a large extent on whether the rate cuts are mid cycle or recessionary.

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Currency
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