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Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term

Building investor resilience in a downturn

With the U.S. economy firmly in late cycle, investors are concerned. How can they ensure their portfolios survive the short term so they can thrive in the long term? The answer would be fairly straightforward if recessions were all alike and had a predictable impact across markets—but they’re not, and they don’t.

We can’t predict how the next recession will unfold, but we can provide a framework to help investors prepare for the late-cycle risks most relevant to their investment needs and objectives. This article:

  • Looks back at a range of developed market recession experiences over the past four decades and the resulting sequence of market reactions for each

  • Looks ahead at four plausible downturn scenarios and assesses potential market responses

  • Analyzes the likely impact of these scenarios and market responses for different types of investors

Download the full article

The infographic below uses illustrations to convey the main talking points and areas of interest covered in the article.


1. With the U.S. economy firmly in late cycle, investors around the world are considering the next recession and how to prepare for it.

Building investor resilience in a downturn infographic 1

2. We have developed a framework to help different investors assess their resilience to plausible recession scenarios.

Building investor resilience in a downturn infographic 2

3. Broadly, we believe many long-term investors have improved their fitness level and ability to ride out a downturn, but the risk of fragility remains.

Building investor resilience in a downturn infographic 3

Download the infographic

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Choose between a comprehensive analysis of our forecasts and critical investment themes, or a simpler overview of our macro and asset class assumptions.

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Download the latest executive summary >

 


The taming of the business cycle

In recent decades, the U.S. economy has become more stable – the business cycle has certainly not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.

Read the next article >

 

 


LTCMA

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. 

Find out more >

 

This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By accessing this content you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of managing investment funds. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation. Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

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