Timely commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.
Subtrend global growth and tighter monetary policy create a challenging outlook for asset markets in 2H22. We downgrade equities to underweight and credit to neutral, move to an overweight in cash and close our underweight to duration.
Despite recent weakness in global markets, many of our portfolio managers remain rather cautious about the outlook. Quality and predictability, as well as modest valuations, matter most in this environment.
Above Trend Growth fell to 50% while Sub Trend Growth rose to 25%, Recession to 15% and Crisis to 10%. Our best ideas include a combination of corporate credit, both investment grade and high yield, and short-duration securitized credit.
Sub Trend Growth is now our base case scenario, at 45%. We cut our expectation of Above Trend Growth to 20%, increased Recession to 25% and left Crisis at 10%. Our best idea: high quality, short-duration bonds, in particular short-dated investment grade corporate bonds and securitized credit.
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