Of the major developed economies, the UK has made the most impressive start in vaccinating its population. Its government has set an ambitious target to offer a first vaccine dose to all those over the age of 70 along with frontline workers and the clinically vulnerable, by mid-February – a target it looks set to meet. The US and in particular the major eurozone economies have got off to slower starts. Our base case though, is that vaccine rollouts allow for developed economies to begin recovering in the spring, and that activity accelerates sharply in the second half of the year as consumers spend their accumulated savings from the pandemic. While there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, investors should remain watchful of information around virus mutations and the potential implications for vaccine efficacy that could delay this timetable.

The UK is leading the race to vaccinate its population

Cumulative Covid-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people