Guide to the Markets
Comprehensive insights on all the latest global economic and market developments.
Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.
We asked Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy at JPMorgan, and Robert Motroni, Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to walk us through the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut interest rates in September, what they think the central bank might do next and how it all impacts short-term bonds and money market funds.
In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, APAC cash investors face a unique set of challenges and opportunities. We sat down with our investment team to answer the top five questions on investors’ minds as we approach the final stretch of 2025.
Explore how diverging central bank policies, trade tensions, and de dollarisation trends are shaping global liquidity markets in 2025. Discover key risks, opportunities, and strategies for investors seeking to navigate volatility and capitalise on elevated front-end yields across Europe, the UK, and Asia Pacific.
Explore the Cash Cookbook, your essential guide seeking to craft the ideal recipe for cash and liquidity management success. This guide will help you choose the optimal liquidity solution to meet your organisation's liquidity needs and risk tolerance, while adapting to current market conditions.
The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60%, citing continued moderation in inflation and further easing of the labour market. Despite growth and inflation aligning with forecasts, the RBA noted that global economic uncertainty and trade policies pose risks to Australia's outlook.
Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4%, with insights into the unexpected voting dynamics and implications for GBP cash investors. Understand the economic context, inflation projections, and strategic opportunities amidst market uncertainty and volatility.
As we pass the midpoint of 2025, the US economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by fiscal policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and evolving monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, coupled with the recent debt ceiling resolution, present both challenges and opportunities for money market fund investors. This brief 2H25 outlook explores the implications of these developments and offers strategic insights for cash investors seeking to navigate the current environment.
As of mid-point of 2025, APAC central banks face an increasingly complex economic outlook marked by escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. The weakened correlation with Federal Reserve policy suggests future monetary policies will be driven by regional and domestic factors.
Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Mid-Year Investment Outlook, analysing the implications of the diverging paths taken by the ECB and BoE. Discover how these central bank policies are shaping distinct market outlooks for the euro and UK, and uncover strategic opportunities for cash investors amidst geopolitical tensions and fiscal policy shifts
Since World War II, the U.S. debt ceiling has been adjusted—either raised or suspended—more than a hundred times, with the Treasury never having depleted its cash reserves and borrowing capacity before Congressional intervention. We remain confident that the debt limit will be increased in a timely manner.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.
Explore the impact of renewed US trade tensions and tariff policies on global markets and liquidity investors. Discover strategic insights on inflation outlook, cross-border considerations, and front-end positioning for resilience and yield. Learn how disciplined flexibility and active management can help navigate market volatility and preserve capital in an uncertain policy environment.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, citing moderating inflation as the reason for easing monetary policy. While AUD deposit rates are declining and the yield curve has flattened, interest rates remain elevated compared to historic standards.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the United States' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1, while changing the outlook from negative to stable.
Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.
Over the first three months, the Trump administration has made it clear that they are willing to trade short-term pain for potential future long-term gains.
Explore the complexities of strategic cash management in 2025 as global economies face evolving challenges. This insightful article delves into the impact of trade tensions, central bank policies, and market volatility on cash strategies, offering guidance for investors navigating uncertain macro conditions. Learn about the implications for US, European, UK, and Asia Pacific markets, and discover how money market funds and ultra-short duration strategies can provide attractive returns and flexibility.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained its dovish stance. It slightly reduced the rate of appreciation of the SG$ NEER policy band but kept the width and centre-point unchanged.
In these uncertain economic times, understanding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the impact of global and domestic financial conditions on the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, and strategic investment approaches for liquidity investors is crucial.
As the financial landscape continues to be characterized by uncertainty and volatility, understanding how to implement effective liquidity strategies is crucial for investors seeking to find the "sweet spot" for their day-to-day investments.
As we navigate the complexities of the U.S. debt ceiling, investors should understand the potential impacts on money market investments.
Explore the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy decision as it cuts key rates by 25 basis points, moving closer to a neutral range. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic growth projections downgraded, the ECB faces a complex landscape. Discover how these changes impact cash strategies and the potential for a pause in rate cuts.
Explore the complexities of 2025's monetary policy, credit markets, and trade. Learn how central banks manage easing cycles, corporate sectors show resilience, and US tariffs impact automakers. Discover strategic investment opportunities and the importance of active management in volatile markets. Stay informed with expert analysis on navigating cash investment strategies in a complex economic landscape.
The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This is the central bank's first rate cut since 2020, citing easing inflationary pressures and confidence in inflation moving towards the target range.
Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in a cautious move towards monetary policy easing. Discover insights from Governor Bailey on maintaining a balanced approach amid inflation and growth forecasts, and understand the implications for GBP cash investors.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.50%, marking the highest level since 2008, as part of its efforts to address persistent inflationary pressures and normalize interest rates.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adopted a more dovish stance by slightly reducing the slope of the SG$ NEER policy band, while keeping the width and centre-point unchanged.
U.S. Global Liquidity investors can anticipate continued real yields across the entire global liquidity product lineup in 2025
Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Investment Outlook 2025 with our insights on expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BOE. Discover how these changes may impact money market strategies and investment horizons in the US, Europe, and UK. Learn about potential economic growth challenges and strategic opportunities in the evolving global liquidity landscape.
The 2025 interest rate outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC) will be influenced by geopolitical risks, escalating trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve policy. Regional factors such as domestic economic conditions and the effectiveness of China’s stimulus will also shape central bank decisions.
At the conclusion of their December monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their three key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the third consecutive meeting.
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI.
This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be.
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investments in Intel and MP Materials,...
Fair Shakes: assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
For three decades until 2020, US healthcare stocks generated roughly the same returns as the tech sector, and with much less volatility.
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.
Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.
This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.
As we look ahead to 2026, discipline could be the defining principle for investors navigating an increasingly complex and volatile market landscape.
This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.
This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.
This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.
This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.
This paper discusses why ASEAN equities can act as effective diversifiers in investors’ Asian equity portfolios in light of uncertain U.S. trade policies.
This paper discusses the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on global markets, and the need for investors to diversify across asset classes.
This paper discusses how private equity presents a viable investment opportunity on the back of high valuations and concentration in public markets, and lower rates around the corner.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the support to Chinese equities from AI developments, anti-involution and globalization.
This paper discusses the potential impact of policy rate cuts on risk assets, like equities and corporate credits.
This paper discusses the downward revision of India's 2025 earnings despite a robust macro environment, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the resilience of China's trade amidst complicated trade dynamics, and the long-term outlook.
This paper discusses the growing importance of the private equity space, and how it can represent superior investment opportunity over small cap stocks.
This paper explores the resilience of Asia's earnings growth for 2Q25 on the back of ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty and developments in AI, and the possible investment implications.
This paper discusses the investment implications from the latest 2Q25 U.S. earnings update, and the strategies by companies to mitigate risks from tariff uncertainties and the inflation spike.
This paper addresses the impact of ongoing uncertainties around tariffs on trade, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma on the back of a slowdown in labor demand and supply, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the positioning of securitized assets in portfolios on the back of pick-up in yields above U.S. Treasuries and low correlation to equities.
This paper discusses the outperformance of European equities compared to the S&P 500 in 2025, and the factors that could further drive portfolio rebalancing away from the U.S.
This paper discusses the potential for diversification of growth and income opportunities for investors within Chinese equities.
This paper discusses the potential impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. economy, its fiscal position and debt levels, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the opportunity in real estate on the back of higher-for-longer interest rates creating dislocation and supply constraints.
This paper discusses the need for currency hedging on the back of U.S. economic slowdown and policy directions pressuring the USD downwards.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.
This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.
This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.
This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.
This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.
This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.
This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.
Insights to guide investors through the opportunities and risks arising from policy from the new administration.
This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.
This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.
This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.
The key to successful investing isn’t predicting the future, it’s learning from the past and understanding the present. We present time-tested strategies.
Exploring how the current environment has affected fixed income's traditional role and the many other opportunities that can accomplish its traditional objectives.
This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.
This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.
This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.
This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.
This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.
This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300 bps annualized in 2024.
This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.
This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
