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Key themes for 4Q 2026
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Economic resilience prevails
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AI concentration strengthens the case for equity diversification
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Bond markets are back in the spotlight
The global economy has so far shown impressive resilience in the face of yet another shock. Business surveys remain in healthy territory (Guide to the Markets – EMEA pages 5 and 25) and capex is broadening outside of the tech sector. While energy prices have led to higher rates of inflation (pg 6), there is little evidence as yet of price pressures broadening into other parts of the economy (pg 7). The combination of solid growth and above-target inflation has pushed interest rate expectations higher (pg 8), but still-subdued wage pressures (pgs 19 and 28), give western central banks the chance to be patient.
Equity markets in the US and EM remain incredibly concentrated towards the AI theme, at both a sector and single stock level (pgs 42 and 52). Business spending on AI is accelerating, yet questions remain about the ability of the large-language-model providers to generate strong profits given the pressure they face on pricing power (pg 63). Strong earnings have helped tech valuations to moderate (pg 53), but we still believe in the benefits of regional diversification. This is not only driven by the different sector weights in regional indices, but also by the fact that fiscal stimulus is picking up outside of the US (pg 33).
The simplest explanation for rising bond yields is that governments are spending huge amounts of money, and are borrowing heavily to do so (pgs 10 and 66). Not only are governments competing for capital against their regional counterparts, but they also now face competition from the US hyperscalers, whose debt issuance is accelerating to fund the AI buildout (pg 75). If yields continue to rise, the increase in debt servicing costs may ultimately force governments to moderate their spending plans (pg 22), which should in turn help to stabilise bond markets. For longer-term investors, today’s higher yields look increasingly attractive given the link between starting yields and future returns (pg 66).
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Frequently asked questions
The Guide to the Markets is a slide-based publication from J.P. Morgan Asset Management that translates the current economic and market environment into a curated set of charts and data visualisations. The Guide spans equities, the economy, fixed income, international markets, alternatives and investment principles. It is designed as a single, objective reference for financial professionals of all kinds who need to ground market conversations, portfolio decisions and education in clearly sourced data.
The Guide to the Markets is refreshed each quarter, when the Market Insights team revises the pages and charts in response to significant economic or market themes and developments. The underlying data is also refreshed daily, and the Guide is available in daily, monthly and quarterly versions for download so users can choose the cadence that best fits their needs.
The Guide to the Markets helps financial professionals make sense of a complex, fast-moving market environment by distilling it into clear, objective, data-driven charts. It provides a common factual foundation for framing market-outlook conversations, grounding portfolio and investment decisions, reinforcing long-term investing principles, and educating clients, committees and boards.
The Guide to the Markets is produced by the Market Insights Strategy team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, led by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist. The regional teams led by Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist for APAC, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, and Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist EMEA, produce 7 regional Guides in 12 languages across 42 countries. The charts draw on the firm's own research alongside reputable third-party data providers spanning market indices, economic statistics and industry research, and each slide includes its source in the footnotes.
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The Guide to the Markets is available online through J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Market Insights hub, where users can view the full interactive slide book or download the complete Guide. It is also accessible through J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Insights app for on-the-go access. Companion publications — including regional editions and topic-focused guides such as the Guide to Alternatives and Guide to ETFs — are available through the broader J.P. Morgan Asset Management Insights programme.