Latest Insights
As 2025 draws to a close, we revisit a key theme that will remain important in 2026, namely the shifting relationship between the federal government and municipal issuers.
While long credit spreads are tight, yields remain compelling, and we believe there is still substantial value to be unlocked in long-duration bonds.
Market Views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) group
Recent headlines surrounding corporate credit stress, particularly involving companies like First Brands and Tricolor, coupled with soured commercial loans among US regional banks Zions and Western Alliance, have drawn investor attention and raised questions about whether there are broader systemic risks akin to historic periods of credit stress. We provide our perspective on credit risk in today’s markets, separating signal from noise.
How changing demand dynamics are driving gold’s resurgent shine
As investors turn their attention to Election Day and Zohran Mamdani tops the polls, we continue to field questions about what a democratic socialist mayor might mean for the future of New York City. We discussed in a previous post, but expand on some of the City’s core strengths and take a closer look at Mamdani’s platform.
In light of the ongoing government shutdown, we assess the possible impact on public finance.
FOMC Statement: September 18, 2025 Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.
Market Views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) group
The Great Housing Imbalance: Understanding America's Supply-Demand Gap
Free buses, childcare and rent freeze - Zohran Mamdani's primary win raises questions about NYC's financial future amid ambitious proposals, but a strong institutional framework and a resilient economic base sustain the city’s credit quality.
Of the sweeping changes introduced by the federal budget, entitlement and tax reforms stand out in the municipal market. Credit selection remains key as pressures mount, although delayed implementation provides some runway.
In this blog, we recap the economic developments of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year (H1) and look ahead to the second half (H2) of 2025 regarding supporting pillars and policy arrangement.
The securitized asset class, once overshadowed by the global financial crisis, has evolved with regulatory improvements and may offer diversification benefits and counter-cyclical performance, making it a potentially valuable addition to portfolios with varying risk/return objectives.
Market Views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) group
“Now let's get this thing on the hump — we got some flyin' to do.” (Major T. J. "King" Kong in Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb)
On the heels of Moody’s rating downgrade of US Treasuries and continuing budget negotiations in the US Congress, higher uncertainty has resulted in a re-pricing of term premium in the bond market.
Weekly Cross Market Meeting Notes: Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC)
The Asia region is an important production hub of global semiconductors and its peripheral products, accounting for more than 50% of global markets share, with South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China leading in production and innovation. In this blog, we explore the semiconductor landscape in Asia and assess the macro implications for the Asia technology (tech) cycle.
Weekly Cross Market Meeting Notes: Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC)
Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.
Weekly Cross Market Meeting Notes: Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC)
In this blog, we discuss the fiscal package for 2025 against rising AI (artificial intelligence) and accelerated tariffs and assess the corresponding economic impact.
The situation around the consumer continues to be complex, with K-shaped outcomes persisting, necessitating rigorous and disciplined security selection in consumer credit investments.
Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.
Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.
Potential reform of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) could have significant implications for investors, taxpayers, and the broader housing market.
In this blog, we discuss our GDP forecast for 2025 and China’s policy responses to trade war 2.0.
Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.
Next week, the BRICS nations are meeting to further discuss how to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. What are the potential implications for the global currency landscape?
Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.
The agency CMBS market offers an attractive way for fixed income investors to access one of the more resilient sectors of the commercial real estate market.
Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).
Back by popular demand, we present Bob Michele's annual "Bond Market Awards" - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, bond of the year and more!
Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).
The ‘Blue wave’ the market had prepared for now appears to be more of a ‘Blue ripple’ and currency markets are adjusting to a different political outlook.
Emerging Markets Local Currency debt emerged as one of our best ideas at our most recent investment quarterly meeting. This isn't just about the US Dollar; we like what we see in local EM.
At our recent IQ meeting, we concluded municipal high yield was one of our best ideas. In this piece we take a deep dive into one of the more opportunistic sectors in the tax-exempt market.
Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).
The opportunity cost of not investing in EM debt remains very high. Most importantly the same applies for the rest of fixed income: don’t fight the central banks.
Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).
In response to Europe’s biggest growth shock in a generation the EU council agreed on the outline of the “Recovery Fund” to help cushion the economic fallout from the pandemic.
The global savings glut has been driving asset price valuations for the last decade or so. Emerging Markets and investors need to prepare for a potential new world.
While no one knows for certain what 2020 or 2022 will bring to the White House and the Fed, staffing changes and increasing political pressure within the Fed is a near-certainty.
We review July's ECB monetary policy and determine the impacts on the ECB and the Eurozone.
