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Solving for Income
Using Market Insights to achieve better outcomes
2025
1
Cash pays less
Investors often think of cash as a safe haven. Many investors shy away from the stock market, unwilling to take on the added risk. However, even with interest rates now at multi-year highs, returns on cash are still low and even negative in real terms for many countries. Cash returns may be negative for some time in real terms as inflation will take time to return to acceptable levels.
Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Nominal yields are the 10-year local currency government bond yield for each respective market. Real yield is calculated based on nominal yield and the last 12-month average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for each respective market. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Asia – On the Bench. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
2
We are living longer
Thanks to advancements in medicine, people are living longer and healthier lives. This chart shows that the share of population in retirement age will rise sharply across Asia over time.
The benefits of saving and investing early
It is important for investors to start saving and investing early in order to maximize the benefits of compounding. This chart illustrates three different scenarios: one in which the investor starts savings early, but keeps those savings in cash only; one in which the investor both saves and invests in financial assets early; and one in which the investor starts later, but still allocates these savings to financial assets. The investor who started early and invested in a well-balanced portfolio is far better prepared for retirement than those who started late or invested only in cash.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) National Development Council of Taiwan (NDC), United Nations Population Project (UN). For illustrative purposes only, assumes a 5% return on investment and a 2% return on cash in investors’ base currency. Actual investments may incur higher or lower growth rates and charges. *All data from UN except for Taiwan, which is from NDC. Guide to the Markets - Asia – On the Bench. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
Chart
3
The Importance of income
The total return on an investment typically consists of two components: price appreciation and income, which usually is paid in the form of coupons or dividends. This income stream can offset the risk of price declines and serve as a critical buffer for portfolios. While these payments do not imply or guarantee a return, they can boost the total return.
Fixed income investors use yields to gauge the income stream they can expect from their investments.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All returns reflect year-to-date returns. Coupon and price returns based on Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. The sum of charts A and B equate to total return for each sector and the sum may not add up to the total return due to rounding. Indices used include Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (10Y), Barclays U.S. Aggregate, Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate Investment Grade, Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield, Bloomberg U.S. MBS Index, Bloomberg Floating Rate Index and Barclays Emerging Markets USD. Guide to the Markets - Asia – On the Bench. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
4
Not only fixed income
Even with the rate hiking cycle potentially coming to an end, the search for yield is still a popular theme for investors, as it is another source of income.
Fixed income often comes first to mind as a source, but dividends also offer a yield payout to investors. In addition to paying a higher yield, high dividend equities have tended to provide a better risk-adjusted return than broader equity indices over the long term.
Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Dividend yield reflects latest dividend yield. **Multiple expansion is based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio. ***Earnings per share (EPS) growth outlook is based on next 12-month aggregate (NTMA) earnings estimates. Past performance is not indicative of current or future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
5
The power of dividends and compounding
Harnessing the power of compounding can greatly impact investor returns. Placing an initial $100 into the MSCI World Index in 1991 would have given an investor nearly $600 today if we merely looked at the price returns.
The compounding effect could greatly increase these returns if the same investor reinvested the dividends paid out by this equity market over time. Investing the same $100 in the MSCI World Index in 1991, but reinvesting the dividends received, would have grown this $100 to over $1,300 today.
Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Bloomberg; (Right) MSCI. U.S. equity is based on S&P 500 Total Return Index; U.S. high yield is based on Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Total Return Index; U.S. aggregate bonds is based on Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index; U.S. short-term Treasuries is based on Bloomberg Short-term Treasury Total Return Index. *Reinvestment in Cash based on the same month U.S. three-month Treasury bill (secondary market) yield. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
6
A range of investments available
In the search for income, there are a broad range of solutions available to investors. The universe of income-paying assets is not limited to fixed income or equity products.
Alternatives and other riskier assets can compensate for the higher risks they carry with higher returns, and often pay investors higher yields to both attract new capital and make it worth investors’ while to tie up their money in these typically longer-duration investments.
A diversified portfolio allocated across many different assets can help mitigate risk while generating income, whether we are heading into a period of difficult or good investment performance.
Source: FactSet, OECD, Tullett Prebon, WM/Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *The U.S. dollar index shown here is fixed-weighted against major currencies. Major currencies are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner and Swiss franc. **DM is developed markets and the yield is calculated as a GDP-weighted average of the 10-year government bond yields of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland and the UK. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/12/24.
Diversification does not guarantee positive returns or eliminate risk of loss.
The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.
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This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
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