Global Alternatives Strategist
Banker, Commercial Investment Banking
Venture capital and government funding have poured into quantum technologies, with investment accelerating sharply over the past decade. After decades of research and experimentation, we are entering an era that bridges laboratory breakthroughs, engineering scalability and commercial viability.
Bits and qubits
Classical computers process information in bits — ones and zeros — solving problems step by step. Tackling bigger problems typically requires more processing power. Quantum computers use qubits, which exploit the physics of subatomic particles to represent multiple states at once.
For us humans, used to thinking in straight lines, as classical computers do, this is a hard concept to fathom. Erwin Schrödinger used the now-famous analogy of a cat in a closed box whose fate is unknowable until the box is opened. In quantum computing, the solution to a complex problem could reveal itself as suddenly and completely as a happy feline bounding out of the box, without requiring intermediate calculation steps along the way.
That makes quantum systems potentially transformative for problems involving vast combinations — simulating the behavior of drug molecules, optimizing supply chains or stress-testing financial portfolios across thousands of scenarios.
Practical progress
Much of the funding has been concentrated in a handful of companies developing a diverse set of hardware approaches. Governments are also backing the field: the U.S. National Quantum Initiative alone has authorized over a billion dollars in funding.
But commercial success is still being determined. Today's quantum systems face challenges with reliability and are capable of solving only narrow, highly specific problems. Quantum "supremacy" — where a quantum device outperforms a conventional computer on a given task — has been demonstrated only in carefully constructed experiments. No quantum computer has yet solved a real-world problem faster than a classical one, and the timelines for doing so, while promising, are years away.
One area where quantum's impact is already being felt is cybersecurity. Powerful quantum computers could eventually break the encryption that protects financial systems, government communications and personal data. That threat is driving significant investment in quantum-resistant cybersecurity — an area where the commercial need is clear, even while the broader technology remains early-stage.
Complement, not replacement
A common misconception is that quantum computers will replace classical ones. They almost certainly will not — quantum is not suited to the everyday computing that most people and businesses rely on. It could, however, be a powerful complement for very specific problems like complex optimization or molecular simulation, where it offers a genuine advantage.
Quantum computing is unlikely to meaningfully reduce demand for conventional data centers or chips in the immediate future. For the vast majority of computing, including AI applications, ones and zeros will continue to dominate.
Investing in quantum
For investors, early-stage technology themes should be approached with caution. In transformative shifts, early enthusiasm routinely outruns commercial timelines, and identifying winners is exceptionally difficult.
Publicly listed quantum companies are largely pre-revenue and unprofitable, with volatile share prices tied to experimental milestones. Private venture capital, which has increased in the last five years, can be a good fit as the quantum technology field still requires longer investment horizons to match the uncertain path to commercialization.