The Weekly Brief
Global Market Insights Strategy Team
Rising Covid-19 infections and falling activity data in the US have raised concerns about the economic recovery
The US economy added back a total of 7.5m jobs in May and June, representing a recovery of a third of the 22.2m jobs lost between February and April. Two weeks ago, we noted the concerning rise in new Covid-19 infections in three of the largest US states, by population: California, Texas and Florida. Since then infections in these states have continued to rise and activity levels in these states look to be rolling over, as consumers and corporates feel less confident about getting back to normal and Governors have begun reversing some reopening measures. This leads us to expect a more stop-start economic recovery, rather than a continuation of the Vshaped recovery suggested by the recent jobs reports.
Google mobility data show activity rolling over in key US states
Activity level as a % from baseline