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Liquidity Insights

Discover our vast array of liquidity insights covering global investment news and trends.

Market Insights

Simplify the complex with our thought-provoking insights written by our global team of strategists.

Eye on the Market

Explore timely commentary on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

Portfolio Insights

Get perspectives and analysis from our investment teams to help guide portfolio decisions.

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LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS EYE ON THE MARKET MARKET UPDATES

LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS

Market & Portfolio Commentary

Read the latest review of Global Liquidity market and portfolio commentary across the Americas, Asia Pacific, as well as Europe and UK.

China’s interest rate pivot

Chinese monetary policy is rapidly evolving and there was some changes today following the recent virus outbreak in Beijing. So I though it prudent to reword the final two paragraphs to better account for this. The rest of the blog and the graphs are unchanged.

Understanding zero interest rates

We examine how ZIRP works, its impacts, likely timeframe, whether we expect rates to go negative (spoiler: we don’t) and options available to liquidity investors.

Navigating through liquidity events and market volatility

Our investment team navigated through the recent market volatility and, with the help of our clients, weathered through the market storm.

A letter from our CEO John Donohue

Hear how Global Liquidity stayed steadfast in our commitment to clients over the past two months.

A look into Libor reform and current elevated spreads

Libor spreads are elevated, indicating cheapness in the funding markets, but we expect them to normalize in the near to medium term.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has stepped up

Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Aidan Shevlin, about latest monetary policies in Hong Kong and how that impacts HKD interest rates and investors.

At a pivotal moment, taking a deep dive into our USD government funds

Surging demand for U.S. Treasury bills (Tbills), in a “flight to quality” sparked by the coronavirus pandemic, created unusual market conditions.

Have money market funds lost their taste for buying?

Without support from central banks in the offshore space, Money Market Funds will likely be slow to get back up to full speed in purchases and duration, writes Olivia Maguire, Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager.

A Federal Reserve announcement provides temporary relief to banks on leverage and capital adequacy

A new rule on calculating the supplementary leverage ratio—a capital adequacy measure—allows expanded balance sheets and potentially greater expansion of quantitative easing.

What have the European Central Bank and the Bank of England done so far?

Olivia Maguire and Joe McConnell evaluate central bank reactions to COVID-19 in the UK and Europe.

Will the COVID-19 pandemic be worse for markets and the economy than the 2008 global financial crisis?

Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Kyongsoo Noh, about key differences between the market environment today and 2008.

The Federal Reserve keeps at it: New supportive actions this week

The Federal Reserve announced new programs on March 23, 2020. Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Kyongsoo Noh, on the latest facilities from the Fed.

If Only There Were a Federal Reserve App

Comments on the recent volatility and pace of monetary policy.

Making monetary policy: The Federal Reserve moves in the right direction

COVID-19 has the world on edge: What does this mean for short term fixed income?

COVID-19 has the world on edge: What does this mean for short term fixed income, volatility and cash investing, cash policy.

Markets' transition away from Libor

Libor, the world’s most widely used benchmark for floating rate instruments, is transitioning SOFR.

Resiliency statement: a message from our CEO John Donohue

We have extensive resiliency procedures in place to protect our employees, clients and businesses, ensuring we can continue to operate efficiently in times of stress.

Implications of COVID-19 outbreak for short term interest rates

The recent coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China has increased investors’ trepidation and financial market uncertainty.

EYE ON THE MARKET

COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 4)

Trump vs Fauci; Positive US earnings and economic surprises; Sharp decline in Southern US infections; Mini-second waves in Australia and Europe; Voting by Mail and the 2020 election; The plausible deniability of question marks.

Blinded by science

Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.

2020 Energy Outlook

COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels. In our tenth annual energy paper, we examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in more permanent reductions. We also analyze the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence, and whether stranded asset risk is the primary reason for the lowest oil and gas valuations in 90 years.

The Bounce

The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think

The Day After

Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.

Zoom Room

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

State's Rights

In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?

COVID and culture

In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.

The equity rally and herd immunity

After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.

Man vs Nature Part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

Man vs Nature: what the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.

John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to recovery

There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) research compilation

Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus.

The pandemic gap

A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.

Berning Man

Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?

COVID-19 update

A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.

Millions and Trillions

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.

Ghosts of Christmas Past

After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

War of the Worlds

How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

The Armageddonists

While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.

Warren Peace

A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

Active Management and QE-distorted markets

Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.

Cold Turkey

A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.

So long Yellow Brick Road

It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.

Food Fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan Market

The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels.

Lost in Space: The Search for Democratic Socialism in the Real World

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

Listen when people tell you who they are

Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.

Smoot Hardly

The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.

Energy Outlook 2019: Mountains and Molehills

Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.

MARKET UPDATES

Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?

Will inflation return after COVID-19? Explore the thoughts of our experts as they review the effects COVID-19 will have on a post-coronavirus economy.

EU agrees on budget and recovery fund: A step towards more integration

After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.

Bank of England boosts its bond-buying plans

Today the Bank of England (BoE) announced an increase to its planned asset purchases of GBP 100bn, taking the purchase target to GBP 300bn in total.

Why are people talking about Brexit risks...again?

Brexit risk is not a thing of the past. As the 11-month transition period progresses, look out for the negotiations to become a source of heightened volatility.

The European Central Bank levels up its stimulus efforts

Today’s actions from the European Central Bank (ECB) were at the upper end of market expectations.

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Does this recession favour growth stocks?

With growth stocks continuing to outperform value stocks in this recession, Global Market Strategist Michael Bell looks at why growth has been so dominant and whether it can continue to outperform value.

The European Central Bank aims to ‘thread the needle’

The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

How bad will the Covid-19 recession be?

We assess how bad the COVID-19 recession will be, considering disease containment time, pre-existing economy vulnerabilities, and the global policy response.

The ECB unveils targeted measures and passes the baton

The ECB announced measures to cushion the COVID-19 financial shock, but stopped short of cutting rates. All eyes are now on governments for a fiscal response.

UK monetary and fiscal stimulus – Unprecedented shock, unprecedented response

The UK’s coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

Do investors need to worry about a Japanese-style stagnation in Europe?

Demographics, debt, and equities have caused past stagnation of the Japanese economy. Discover whether Europe’s similarities could lead to the same fate.

Three reasons investors could return to UK stocks post Brexit

Brexit uncertainty is not over. But that wasn’t the only thing holding back UK stocks, and investors could be tempted back to the market.

A menu of options for income-hungry investors

The late stage of the economic cycle poses challenges for investors seeking income. Explore risks investors may add to portfolios whilst hunting for yield.

How will the 2020 US presidential election affect markets?

Historically, S&P 500 volatility has been higher in election years than in non-election years. Learn more on how the 2020 election may impact the market.

Changing of Lagarde, but toolkit challenges remain

The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance and is unlikely to make any changes in the coming months.

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