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Eye on the Market

Explore timely commentary on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

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LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS

Global Liquidity Investment Outlook 2026 - Asia Pacific: Finding a new balance

Economic growth is expected to moderate. Fiscal support and lower interest rates provide some uplift, but fading external demand may offset it. Inflation is projected to bottom out, then rise slightly before stabilizing. Most APAC central banks are expected to pause or slow rate cuts, with short-term interest rates stabilizing at levels above previous cycles. China and Japan remain outliers; China may ease further while Japan may hike to address inflation.

Bank of England: Spreading some festive cheer

Explore the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, shifting inflation outlook, and evolving monetary policy. Learn how economic trends and policy decisions impact GBP cash investors, with insights on market expectations, fund strategies, and future rate movements.

Tokenization: Transforming Money Market Funds for the Digital Era

Get a concise overview of how tokenization is revolutionizing the financial industry by converting traditional assets into robust, efficient digital tokens. This article highlights the key impacts on money market funds, operational advantages, and the accelerating global adoption of blockchain technology.

Modernizing the Fed’s Operating Target: Why Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan Thinks the Time is Now

Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.

Tokenization of Money Market Funds

Delve into a comprehensive analysis of how digital assets and tokenized money market funds (MMFs) are reshaping the financial landscape. This whitepaper provides an in-depth exploration of the latest innovations, practical benefits, regulatory developments, and emerging trends in liquidity management for the digital era.

China PBoC – Navigating the Imbalances

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.

Interpreting the Federal Reserve’s most recent rate cut

We asked Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy at JPMorgan, and Robert Motroni, Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to walk us through the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut interest rates in September, what they think the central bank might do next and how it all impacts short-term bonds and money market funds.

Positioning for Divergence: Opportunities in Liquidity Markets

Explore how diverging central bank policies, trade tensions, and de dollarisation trends are shaping global liquidity markets in 2025. Discover key risks, opportunities, and strategies for investors seeking to navigate volatility and capitalise on elevated front-end yields across Europe, the UK, and Asia Pacific.

Cash cookbook: Liquidity that works harder

Explore the Cash Cookbook, your essential guide seeking to craft the perfect recipe for cash and liquidity management success. This guide will help you choose the best liquidity solution to meet your organisation's liquidity needs and risk tolerance, while adapting to current market conditions.

RBA cut rate with caution

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60%, citing continued moderation in inflation and further easing of the labour market. Despite growth and inflation aligning with forecasts, the RBA noted that global economic uncertainty and trade policies pose risks to Australia's outlook.

Bank of England: A finely balanced decision to cut, but rates still restrictive

Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4%, with insights into the unexpected voting dynamics and implications for GBP cash investors. Understand the economic context, inflation projections, and strategic opportunities amidst market uncertainty and volatility.

US Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025: Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty

As we pass the midpoint of 2025, the US economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by fiscal policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and evolving monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, coupled with the recent debt ceiling resolution, present both challenges and opportunities for money market fund investors. This brief 2H25 outlook explores the implications of these developments and offers strategic insights for cash investors seeking to navigate the current environment.

APAC Central Bank Mid-Year Outlook 2025: Navigating Tariffs and Growth Challenges

As of mid-point of 2025, APAC central banks face an increasingly complex economic outlook marked by escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. The weakened correlation with Federal Reserve policy suggests future monetary policies will be driven by regional and domestic factors.

Global Liquidity EMEA Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025: The implications of the ECB and BoE’s diverging paths

Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Mid-Year Investment Outlook, analysing the implications of the diverging paths taken by the ECB and BoE. Discover how these central bank policies are shaping distinct market outlooks for the euro and UK, and uncover strategic opportunities for cash investors amidst geopolitical tensions and fiscal policy shifts

Money Market Funds and the Debt Ceiling: What Investors Need to Know

Since World War II, the U.S. debt ceiling has been adjusted—either raised or suspended—more than a hundred times, with the Treasury never having depleted its cash reserves and borrowing capacity before Congressional intervention. We remain confident that the debt limit will be increased in a timely manner.

ECB: Sitting in the right place (for now)

Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.

Transatlantic shifts: US policy, global markets, and what it means for liquidity investors

Explore the impact of renewed US trade tensions and tariff policies on global markets and liquidity investors. Discover strategic insights on inflation outlook, cross-border considerations, and front-end positioning for resilience and yield. Learn how disciplined flexibility and active management can help navigate market volatility and preserve capital in an uncertain policy environment.

RBA eases rate with confidence

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, citing moderating inflation as the reason for easing monetary policy. While AUD deposit rates are declining and the yield curve has flattened, interest rates remain elevated compared to historic standards.

The Moody's Downgrade

Moody's Ratings has downgraded the United States' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1, while changing the outlook from negative to stable.

Navigating uncertainty: The Bank of England remains cautious after a split MPC decision

Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.

Navigating Uncertainty: The Power of Liquidity

Over the first three months, the Trump administration has made it clear that they are willing to trade short-term pain for potential future long-term gains.

Strategic cash management in a changing world

Explore the complexities of strategic cash management in 2025 as global economies face evolving challenges. This insightful article delves into the impact of trade tensions, central bank policies, and market volatility on cash strategies, offering guidance for investors navigating uncertain macro conditions. Learn about the implications for US, European, UK, and Asia Pacific markets, and discover how money market funds and ultra-short duration strategies can provide attractive returns and flexibility.

Navigating the Debt Ceiling: A Money Market Investor's Guide to Stability Amid Uncertainty

As we navigate the complexities of the U.S. debt ceiling, investors should understand the potential impacts on money market investments.

ECB: The last easy cut

Explore the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy decision as it cuts key rates by 25 basis points, moving closer to a neutral range. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic growth projections downgraded, the ECB faces a complex landscape. Discover how these changes impact cash strategies and the potential for a pause in rate cuts.

Monetary policy, credit markets and trade: Navigating cash investment strategies in 2025

Explore the complexities of 2025's monetary policy, credit markets, and trade. Learn how central banks manage easing cycles, corporate sectors show resilience, and US tariffs impact automakers. Discover strategic investment opportunities and the importance of active management in volatile markets. Stay informed with expert analysis on navigating cash investment strategies in a complex economic landscape.

BoE: Dovish cut, cautious guidance

Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in a cautious move towards monetary policy easing. Discover insights from Governor Bailey on maintaining a balanced approach amid inflation and growth forecasts, and understand the implications for GBP cash investors. Read more on the strategic positioning of J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity GBP strategies in response to these changes.

Global Liquidity EMEA Investment Outlook 2025

Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Investment Outlook 2025 with our insights on expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BOE. Discover how these changes may impact money market strategies and investment horizons in the US, Europe, and UK. Learn about potential economic growth challenges and strategic opportunities in the evolving global liquidity landscape.

EYE ON THE MARKET

Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights

In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.

The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review

On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.

The winter of our discontent

While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI.

Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks

This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be.

The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack

In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investments in Intel and MP Materials,...

Fair Shakes

Fair Shakes: assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR

Eye on the Market Outlook 2025 : The Alchemists

Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.

Sick as a Dog

For three decades until 2020, US healthcare stocks generated roughly the same returns as the tech sector, and with much less volatility.

Summer mailbag

Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.

"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and Presidential break-ups

Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.

Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill

A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming

With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.

Dogespierre Has Left the Building

Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.

Eye on the Market podcast

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Börsenstandpunktänderungspräsident: a revised tariff chart, critical minerals and note to Andreessen

While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.

Redacted

Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.

Fifty Days of Grey

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.

Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear

Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.

From Here to Eternity

From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.

DeepSeek and the sincerest form of flattery

The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.

Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.

The Year of Living Dangerously

I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.

"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.

A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market

NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.

There’s no place like home

A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.

The Lion in Winter

From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.

Implications of President Biden's Nominee Withdrawal Webcast Replay

US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.

Presidential candidate replacement procedures

US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.

A Piece of the Action

Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.

Animal Farm

With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.

Cicadian Rhythms

Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.

Eye on the Market 14th Annual energy paper

Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.

Five Easy Pieces

Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.

Medical Complications

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.

Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk

Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.

It's Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit

Not That 70's Show

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

New York, Just Like I Pictured It

A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

Thy Brother’s Keeper

COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Global Resilience to higher rates

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

Letters to the Editor

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

Oh, The Places We Could Go

Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post

Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot

American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

The End of the Affair

The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.

Reruns

Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.

Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

MARKET UPDATES

A new path for the US dollar

Uncover the factors influencing the future path of the US dollar and what they mean for investors.

Key questions shaping the outlook for AI megacaps

Uncover how AI megacaps are tackling innovation, business shifts, and future chip demand in a changing landscape.

UK Budget 2025: What to Expect from the Chancellor’s Fiscal Plans

Explore how the UK Chancellor must weigh tax increases against spending cuts to resolve a fiscal shortfall.

A weak UK economy is not a headwind for UK large caps

Explore how UK large-cap stocks remain a smart portfolio choice, thanks to international revenue streams, high dividend yields, and supportive policy trends.

The cost of holding cash in a volatile market

Is cash really king in today's volatile market? Discover why a diversified portfolio might be a smarter investment choice.

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap stock valuations and find out why small cap investing could offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

The European Central Bank aims to ‘thread the needle’

The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.

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