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Alternatives 2025 Outlook

This year's Alternatives Outlook offers broad perspectives from our team of experts, bringing you a comprehensive view of the trends, risks and opportunities influencing alternative investment markets.

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Key takeaways

Pro-growth policies

U.S. tax reform and deregulation could enhance corporate profitability, reviving deals, exits and lending

Tariffs and trade

Many alternatives may benefit from tariff-related disruptions or can provide inflation protection to investors

Monetary policy

2025 could be a year of divergent monetary policy, although higher terminal interest rates appear likely in many regions

Overview

Policy shifts create new dynamics

The current landscape is marked by political crosscurrents, with a new U.S. administration and political uncertainty rippling across the globe. The resulting policy changes could underscore U.S. exceptionalism in global growth, boost global inflation and spark divergent monetary policy. In this dynamic environment, we explore three key themes that could shape portfolio strategies for alternative assets.

Alternatives offer strategic portfolio solutions

The strategic importance of alternative investments is clearer than ever. With public equity markets richly valued and highly concentrated, interest rates volatile and stock-bond correlations positive, alternatives are essential for providing alpha, income, inflation protection and diversification.

January 30, 2025: Alternatives Outlook Webcast

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Broad themes

Looking ahead into 2025, we expect to see both enhanced opportunities and emerging risks for alternative investments driven by three broad themes.

Pro-growth policies and return-enhancing opportunities

In brief:

Proposed U.S. tax reform and deregulation, coupled with AI-driven productivity advancements, are expected to boost growth, corporate profits and confidence over the next few years.
This stronger backdrop may reinvigorate IPOs, M&A and lending activity creating supportive conditions for private equity and private credit, which may also benefit from a deregulatory environment.
The favorable U.S. macro environment may also lift real estate, where a generational investment opportunity is emerging as valuations reach an inflection point.

Impacted asset classes: Private equity, Private credit, U.S. real estate

Pro-growth policies could spur dealmaking and exits

Source: PitchBook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Natural resources = Materials & resources and energy. *Data for 2024 is through 3Q24. Data based on availability as of November 30, 2024.

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Tariffs, trade tensions and inflationary impacts

In brief:

Renewed trade tensions, higher tariffs and greater economic nationalism could prompt more stubborn global inflation.
Allocations to infrastructure, real estate or transport can offer inflation protection.
Transport assets may uniquely benefit from the reordering of global trade.

Impacted asset classes: Infrastructure, Real estate, Transport

Utilities and real estate can provide protection against inflation by passing on costs

Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NCREIF, SNL, AEU, J.I. Morgan Asset Management. (Left) Data represent average allowed return on equities (RoEs) for Electricity and Natural Gas Utilities and annual inflation from December 1970 through December 2023. Return on equity is lagged by 2 years. (Right) NFI-ODCE is short for NCREIF Fund Index Open End Diversified Core Equity Fund Index. It is a capitalization weighted, gross of fee, time weighted return index. Real estate performance is measured using total returns. “High inflation is defined as any year over year headline CPI reading above the historical median, while low inflation is defined as any year over year headline CPI reading below the historical median. The median y/y headline CPI for period between 4Q78-3Q24 is 2.84%. Data are based on availability as of November 30, 2024.

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Divergent monetary policy and high-for-longer interest rates

In brief:

Solid growth and stubborn inflation could result in higher policy rates and less easing than previously anticipated in some developed markets.
For alternatives, rates play a crucial role in the cost of capital and the fundraising climate.
High interest rates make leverage more expensive and may weigh on private equity company valuations.
Higher financing costs put pressure on lower quality borrowers in private credit and real estate.
Hedge funds are well positioned to navigate fiscal and monetary policy shifts and the potential for increased volatility may benefit select strategies.

Impacted asset classes: Private equity, Private credit, Commercial real estate, Hedge funds, Residential real estate

Currency and interest rate volatility may provide macro hedge funds with opportunities for alpha generation

Source: CBOE, ICE BofA, HFRI, FactSet, J.I. Morgan Index Research, J.I. Morgan Asset Management. Equity volatility is represented by the VIX Index, interest rate volatility is represented by the MOVE Index and foreign exchange volatility is represented by the J.I. Morgan Global FX Volatility Index. Three month Treasury Bill yield: Bloomberg U.S. Short Treasury (one to three months) Index. Hedge fund returns: HRFI Fund Weighted Composite (USD) Index. Data based on availability as of November 30, 2024.

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Investment implications

The Alternatives Investment Strategy & Solutions (AISS) team shares its three high-conviction, near-term opportunities in income-oriented or semi-liquid alternatives.

In brief:

Global transport assets are well-positioned for changes in global trade and inflation.
Secondaries offer more efficient access to potential pickup in private equity activity.
U.S. real estate offers compelling valuations, a growth tailwind and inflation protection.

*While our conviction is positive for many categories of alternatives, in any environment, it's important to focus on the fundamentals and an outcome-driven investment approach in order to position portfolios for success.

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