The UK is set to receive unusually high levels of attention from global investors over the summer. The economy will act as a test case for fully reopening in the context of rising cases of Covid-19, among a population in which around 90% of adults have received at least one vaccine dose. Just one week after most limits on activity were lifted, it remains too early to accurately assess the impact on consumer confidence. The extent to which the large number of people being asked to self-isolate may limit output in the very short term also bears watching. Yet if the UK can prove that vaccines have sufficiently weakened the link between cases and serious illness to enable a sustained reopening, this would likely be a major boost to market sentiment, particularly for regions where vaccination rates are already comparable to the UK.

Global investors are looking to the UK for proof of vaccine efficacy

Daily Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions in the UK, seven-day moving average