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Guide to the Markets: Daily edition
Get quick access to all the latest market and economic data, wherever and whenever you need it with our daily Guide to the Markets. Watch the video to find out how.
Key themes for Q1 2025
Don’t be derailed by political noise
At face value, it appears the re-election of President Trump will further widen the economic and asset market performance gulf between the US and the rest of the world (Guide to the Markets - UKpgs 4, 45). While a fairly aggressive trade, tax, and migration strategy was touted on the campaign trail (pg 22), if fully deployed this could have considerable negative consequences for both inflation and the burgeoning US fiscal deficit (pgs 17, 19). Thus, we expect measures to be more limited and targeted. Investors should also remember that expectations for stock performance outside of the US are already very muted (pgs 44, 46), so any upside surprise from potential counter stimulus measures could support non-US markets.
Navigating the tech revolution
How highly-valued tech stocks perform in 2025 is more important than who is in the White House. These firms have been investing heavily in new AI technologies and now need to meet very high expectations for the return on this investment in 2025 (pgs 52, 62). We do believe these technologies will be impactful as they proliferate through the economy, so do not see this as a bubble. However, we would argue that the stronger opportunities from here are tilted towards the users rather than the producers of AI (pg 53).
Portfolios that can thrive in a world of two-way risk
While our central expectation is that the global economy will not be hugely disrupted by policy shifts, there are risks. If broad-based tariffs are levied on US imports from multiple regions, global business confidence and demand is likely to take a hit (pgs 14, 30). In this case, government bonds would be expected to offer significant upside (pg 67). However, if policies reignite inflationary pressures, the valuations of stocks and bonds will be challenged. In this case investors will need to seek shelter in the alternative assets that proved effective during the period of high inflation in 2022 (pgs 78, 79).
