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The Weekly Brief

Contributor Global Markets Insights Strategy Team

The eurozone Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is a quantitative measure of how economic data is doing relative to economists’ expectations

When the index is high, it indicates that data releases have been beating consensus expectations and vice versa. The momentum of economic data in the eurozone has shifted markedly, from healthy positive surprises at the start of the year to a large number of disappointments in recent months, leading to a moderation of growth expectations for 2018. Given the amount of disappointing data that European equity markets have already absorbed, it should become easier for the data to stop disappointing by as much as it has been, now that expectations have come down. Historically, an improvement in the surprise index from these levels has been good news for equities.

Eurozone CESI has fallen since the start of the year
The Weekly Brief (18 June 2018)

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