The Weekly BriefContributor Global Markets Insights Strategy Team
Recent polling suggests there is no majority in favour of either a no-deal Brexit, the deal on offer, or remaining in the European Union (EU), based on the British people’s first choices.
So second preferences will need to be taken into account to break the stalemate. After considering these, leaving the EU with the current deal is overwhelmingly preferred. Last week’s ruling that the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 means a no-deal Brexit is unlikely, as there is no majority in favour of no-deal. Assuming the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party won’t risk an election, failure to compromise and support May’s deal would only increase the need for a referendum. The polls suggest a remain vs. leave vote would still be very close, but if leave won, in a deal vs. no-deal vote 65% of people would support the deal.
What Brexit outcome do the British people want?
% of respondents
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