Tools and resources necessary to help you make informed investment decisions and build stronger portfolios
Chinese monetary policy is rapidly evolving and there was some changes today following the recent virus outbreak in Beijing. So I though it prudent to reword the final two paragraphs to better account for this. The rest of the blog and the graphs are unchanged.
We examine how ZIRP works, its impacts, likely timeframe, whether we expect rates to go negative (spoiler: we don’t) and options available to liquidity investors.
Our investment team navigated through the recent market volatility and, with the help of our clients, weathered through the market storm.
Hear how Global Liquidity stayed steadfast in our commitment to clients over the past two months.
Libor spreads are elevated, indicating cheapness in the funding markets, but we expect them to normalize in the near to medium term.
Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Aidan Shevlin, about latest monetary policies in Hong Kong and how that impacts HKD interest rates and investors.
Surging demand for U.S. Treasury bills (Tbills), in a “flight to quality” sparked by the coronavirus pandemic, created unusual market conditions.
Without support from central banks in the offshore space, Money Market Funds will likely be slow to get back up to full speed in purchases and duration, writes Olivia Maguire, Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager.
A new rule on calculating the supplementary leverage ratio—a capital adequacy measure—allows expanded balance sheets and potentially greater expansion of quantitative easing.
Olivia Maguire and Joe McConnell evaluate central bank reactions to COVID-19 in the UK and Europe.
Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Kyongsoo Noh, about key differences between the market environment today and 2008.
The Federal Reserve announced new programs on March 23, 2020. Learn from Global Liquidity Portfolio Manager, Kyongsoo Noh, on the latest facilities from the Fed.
Comments on the recent volatility and pace of monetary policy.
Making monetary policy: The Federal Reserve moves in the right direction
COVID-19 has the world on edge: What does this mean for short term fixed income, volatility and cash investing, cash policy.
Libor, the world’s most widely used benchmark for floating rate instruments, is transitioning SOFR.
We have extensive resiliency procedures in place to protect our employees, clients and businesses, ensuring we can continue to operate efficiently in times of stress.
The recent coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China has increased investors’ trepidation and financial market uncertainty.
Read the latest review of Global Liquidity market and portfolio commentary across the Americas, Asia Pacific, as well as Europe and UK.
Trump vs Fauci; Positive US earnings and economic surprises; Sharp decline in Southern US infections; Mini-second waves in Australia and Europe; Voting by Mail and the 2020 election; The plausible deniability of question marks.
Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.
COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels. In our tenth annual energy paper, we examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in more permanent reductions. We also analyze the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence, and whether stranded asset risk is the primary reason for the lowest oil and gas valuations in 90 years.
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
Will inflation return after COVID-19? Explore the thoughts of our experts as they review the effects COVID-19 will have on a post-coronavirus economy.
After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.
Today the Bank of England (BoE) announced an increase to its planned asset purchases of GBP 100bn, taking the purchase target to GBP 300bn in total.
Brexit risk is not a thing of the past. As the 11-month transition period progresses, look out for the negotiations to become a source of heightened volatility.
Today’s actions from the European Central Bank (ECB) were at the upper end of market expectations.
The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
With growth stocks continuing to outperform value stocks in this recession, Global Market Strategist Michael Bell looks at why growth has been so dominant and whether it can continue to outperform value.
The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
We assess how bad the COVID-19 recession will be, considering disease containment time, pre-existing economy vulnerabilities, and the global policy response.
The ECB announced measures to cushion the COVID-19 financial shock, but stopped short of cutting rates. All eyes are now on governments for a fiscal response.
The UK’s coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
Demographics, debt, and equities have caused past stagnation of the Japanese economy. Discover whether Europe’s similarities could lead to the same fate.
Brexit uncertainty is not over. But that wasn’t the only thing holding back UK stocks, and investors could be tempted back to the market.
The late stage of the economic cycle poses challenges for investors seeking income. Explore risks investors may add to portfolios whilst hunting for yield.
Historically, S&P 500 volatility has been higher in election years than in non-election years. Learn more on how the 2020 election may impact the market.
The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance and is unlikely to make any changes in the coming months.
