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Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025

 

 

Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025

Stable foundations for an unstable world

The volatility experienced in the first half of the year is likely to persist as markets continue to play a crucial role in guiding the US administration towards sensible, amicable policy. We consider stable strategies that will help investors thrive in these unstable times.
 

Explore the Mid-Year Investment Outlook

 

The Weekly Brief
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Our flagship Insights

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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Market Commentary

Implications of Middle East tensions for the global economy and markets

Explore potential oil price scenarios and the economic implications stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

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US tariffs: What to do and what not to do, in light of tariff news

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

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A new path for the US dollar

Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.

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Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

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Lessons to be learned from the recent selloff in US Treasuries

Discover the factors behind the recent rise in US Treasury yields. Learn about structural shifts, market dynamics, and the Fed's role, offering insights into why core government bonds remain a hedge against recession risks over the medium term.

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A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

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The cost of holding cash in a volatile market | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Is cash really king? Explore why holding cash may underperform other asset classes and how smarter investment strategies can thrive in a volatile market.

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Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

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How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

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UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

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What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

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Budget choices and challenges facing the new UK chancellor

Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.

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Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

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Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

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Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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Featured Portfolio Insights

Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2025

As U.S. growth is cooling, but not collapsing, we have trimmed overall risk in our portfolios. We are broadly neutral to modestly overweight equity; we overweight credit with reasonable conviction and mildly overweight duration.

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Factor Views 2Q 2025

Factors delivered a strong first quarter, offering investors a diversifying source of returns as uncertainty rose about the outlook for equity market performance and economic growth.

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Global Fixed Income Views 2Q 2025

We see Sub-Trend Growth as becoming more likely at 60%, and have lowered the probability of Above-Trend Growth to 10%. We raised the probability of a Recession to 20% while Crisis remains at 10%.

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Emerging Market Debt Quarterly Strategy

Our quarterly EMD strategy report assesses the latest economic developments in emerging markets and sets out our base case scenario for the asset class.

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Global Equity Views 2Q 2025

The outlook for profits is cloudier, but we still expect modest growth this year. Many of our investors favor quality stocks in the financial and industrial sectors while avoiding high priced defensives.

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