Our Market Insights programme is designed to empower investors to make better investment decisions.
The Guide to the Markets illustrates market and economic trends using compelling charts. The Weekly Brief provides summaries of recent market movements and economic developments; and On the Minds of Investors gives you our views on the questions that are top of mind.
Introducing the Q4 2019 Guide
Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist, previews this quarter's themes and invites you to use the Guide to help navigate the investment landscape.
Global Fixed Income Views Q4 2019
We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.
Emerging Market Equity Views Q2 2019
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.