From guidance to guesswork: The Fed's new playbook
A hawkish Fed shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, an oil shock, and AI capex are pushing inflation expectations higher, raising volatility, reviving rate hikes, and reshaping strategy for cash investors.
Discover our vast array of liquidity insights covering global investment news and trends that may impact your cash portfolios
A hawkish Fed shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, an oil shock, and AI capex are pushing inflation expectations higher, raising volatility, reviving rate hikes, and reshaping strategy for cash investors.
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AI investment is driving U.S. data center construction at a scale that demands new approaches to financing. J.P. Morgan's Investment Banking teams break down how corporate debt, project-level debt and multi-layered equity structures are being deployed — and what risks developers and investors need to manage.
If the Federal Reserve does return to a hiking cycle, a key practical consideration is how quickly a money market fund can regain reinvestment flexibility and participate in higher front-end yields. For a corporate treasurer or money market fund investor, two of the first metrics to check are WAM and WAL.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as inflation stayed stubborn and Middle East-driven energy risks kept uncertainty high. With no forward guidance, President Lagarde reinforced a strict meeting by meeting approach, leaving markets to track incoming data and volatile terminal rate pricing.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) delivered a smaller tightening in July, but the direction hasn’t changed. Resilient growth and imported cost pressures leave inflation risks skewed higher and keeps the tightening stance alive. Learn about what this means for S$NEER and why SGD rates may stay volatile.
As we move into mid-year, the macro environment remains defined by a mix of underlying resilience and emerging constraints. U.S. growth continues to hold up, supported by a strong labor market and solid business investment.
Short-term municipal rates remained broadly stable throughout June, supported by balanced supply-and-demand dynamics. The SIFMA Municipal Swap Index, which resets weekly, reflected these conditions and traded within a range of approximately 2.14% to 2.89% over the course of the month.
Asia Pacific central banks are shifting into “wait and see” mode. Energy-driven inflation risks and uneven, AI-led resilience complicate the outlook. The easing cycle looks over; if inflation accelerates, the next move may be hikes.
Energy shocks and higher rates meet the AI boom, with implications for ECB policy, BoE policy and cash investors.
During the recent Global Liquidity Investment Forums held in Shanghai and Beijing, our portfolio managers Aidan Shevlin, Doris Grillo, and Molly Meng shared perspectives on money markets across the world, with a focus on volatility management, rate-path repricing, and policy signal interpretation.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in June, its first hike since 2023, as inflation risks rose and growth outlooks softened. President Lagarde signalled this is unlikely to be a one-off move, with markets looking to September for the next decision.
Geopolitics is reshaping macro and monetary policy after the Strait of Hormuz closure triggered an energy-led inflation shock, keeping central banks higher for longer and highlighting liquidity discipline and yield opportunities.
Central banks face a dilemma as the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher and supply lower, fueling inflation and threatening growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered three consecutive rate hikes, reaffirming its commitment to price stability. Its hawkish stance is expected to persist.
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Even with a new Chair, policy is set by the FOMC, so any evolution in rates, communications, or the balance sheet would require consensus and likely be phased in over time.
The MAS pivoted to a more hawkish stance at its April policy meeting, increasing the S$NEER appreciation rate to counter rising imported inflation driven by energy shocks and global supply disruptions.
U.S. money market funds are poised for growth in 2026, with only modest Fed action expected and no drastic changes in policy or rates. Investors still have opportunities to add duration and seek enhance returns through careful credit selection.
APAC central banks entered 2026 split on the future direction of interest rates as disinflation fades and local growth remains robust. De-dollarization and regulatory convergence deepen local liquidity and anchor yields.
Asia’s credit markets began 2026 on a positive note, supported by solid fundamentals and strong technical driven by investor demand and new issue supply, but the recent geopolitical risk may dampen the picture.
Tokenized money market funds modernize corporate treasury by seeking to pair traditional MMF stability with blockchain enabled speed, transparency, and 24/7 access. Benefits include faster settlement, improved collateral efficiency, real-time visibility, and strategic optionality, with practical considerations around regulation, integration, skills, security, and market depth.
Explore how the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, citing elevated uncertainty tied to Middle East developments.
Greater capacity pressures, stronger private demand, a tight labour market and Middle East energy risks drove the RBA to hike. Despite a split vote and data dependence, the central bank’s commentary stayed hawkish.
Explore how 2026 policy divergence, geopolitics, and de‑dollarisation are reshaping global liquidity. Discover risks, opportunities, and strategies, active duration, diversification, and cash segmentation, across the US, Europe, the UK, and APAC.
RBA’s decision to hike restores its credibility and reflects a shift towards a more hawkish stance, given mounting evidence that the economy is running hotter than anticipated.
Supportive monetary policy, ongoing fiscal initiatives, and the conclusion of quantitative tightening should foster favorable liquidity conditions and create opportunities for short-term investors.
Economic growth is expected to moderate. Fiscal support and lower interest rates provide some uplift, but fading external demand may offset it. Inflation is projected to bottom out, then rise slightly before stabilizing. Most APAC central banks are expected to pause or slow rate cuts, with short-term interest rates stabilizing at levels above previous cycles. China and Japan remain outliers; China may ease further while Japan may hike to address inflation.
Highlights include: ECB optimism, resilient euro area growth, and ongoing BoE rate cuts amid UK economic challenges. Learn how policy divergence, political risks, and market trends are shaping investment strategies for euro and sterling investors.
Explore the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, shifting inflation outlook, and evolving monetary policy. Learn how economic trends and policy decisions impact GBP cash investors, with insights on market expectations, fund strategies, and future rate movements.
Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.
We asked Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy at JPMorgan, and Robert Motroni, Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to walk us through the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut interest rates in September, what they think the central bank might do next and how it all impacts short-term bonds and money market funds.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.
Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.