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The FOMC met market expectations for a 50bps increase to its target range, which now stands between 0.75% and 1.00%, and raised the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) and the overnight Reverse Repo Rate (RRP) by the same amount to 0.90% and 0.80% respectively.
The BoE delivered on market expectations, increasing the Bank Rate by 25 bps at its May MPC meeting and bringing rates to 1% for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, in what Governor Andrew Bailey described as a ‘carefully calibrated decision’.
The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.
The latest muted actions by the PBoC suggest the central bank is reaching the limits of monetary policy, which are expected to have direct implications for onshore interest rates.
At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.
On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% in a split 8-1 vote with the dissenting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member calling for no change on 17 March 2022.
At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.
The European Central Bank (ECB) took a hawkish turn at the February meeting, putting the market on alert for potential rates hikes later this year. While this was not a meeting where the ECB unveiled a new set of forecasts, it nonetheless provided a number of talking points.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.50% in a split 5-4 vote with dissenting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members calling for an immediate jump to 0.75%.
Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.
The Bank of England (BoE) delivered an early festive surprise for sterling markets as they increased the Bank Rate by 15 basis points (bps) to 0.25% at its December Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
The Bank of England (BoE) defied market expectations for a rate hike as they left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintained total target of asset purchases at GBP 895 billion. The deferred hike means no immediate respite to ultra-low sterling yields, although further interest rate volatility is likely; investors should consider maintaining a disciplined approach to cash investment and segmentation.
The RBA announced its first tentative step towards tapering and eventual policy normalization.
At its monthly policy meeting in June, the ECB revised its growth and inflation forecasts upwards, but confirmed its “very accommodative monetary policy stance”.
The Elephants in the Room. We start with a global summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe. We continue with a detailed assessment of the hydrogen economy, whose liftoff is still many years away.
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings will eventually decline and markets are not pricing in high risk of recession.
A combination of rising rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and years of investor acceptance of unprofitable new companies (the “YUCs”) led to a sharp repricing of growth stocks in Q1 of this year.
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, and the COVID situation in Hong Kong
In this note we examine the latest on China’s economy and markets. But first: comments on China’s connection to the war in Ukraine since its financial and energy decisions may dilute the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia:
The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and the implications for the durability of sanctions placed on Russia if Russia retaliates with energy sanctions on Europe.
Global markets have had to digest a lot of bad news in a very short period.
In this piece, we examine the adoption trends, capital flows and use cases for cryptocurrencies and blockchains. Use cases include crypto as a store of value, cross border remittances, decentralized finance, non-fungible tokens and blockchain adoption in financial services.
A look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are already pricing in plenty of good news.
You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin said all along he would not agree to. Read more for our thoughts on the fallout
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron
Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
In this Eye on the Market: early signs of goods bottlenecks easing; the more persistent issue of US labor shortages; the US, Taiwan, China, treaty changes and semiconductor capacity; and an update on the most over-indebted US states
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
China does not stack up well on most ESG metrics. Explore our take on whether investing in China can be reconciled with investing sustainably.
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.
Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.
There is a lot we don’t know about the latest virus mutation – labelled Omicron. Markets are clearly concerned by the fact that the early studies suggest it is a significant mutation and appears to be considerably more infectious than former strains.
COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.
With UK shares looking cheap, long-term investors may be able to pick up a bargain in the UK stock market this year. Explore our outlook for UK equities.
Investing in China the right way is key: with a portfolio of companies, listed both offshore and onshore, with a manager that has a local presence and can do long-term fundamental analysis.
Explore how the fiscal stimulus provided by the EU's pandemic recovery fund could lead to stronger economic growth and boost demand for European assets.
Will this year’s value rally continue, or are growth stocks set to regain the initiative? In our latest On the Minds of Investors article, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler examines the basic drivers of value outperformance, and looks at how value stocks may perform in three near-term economic scenarios based on our latest projections.
Could carbon prices be about to rise? Global market strategist Vincent Juvyns looks at the increasing regulatory pressures on carbon pricing, and assesses the potential impact on markets
With Covid cases falling, excess household savings and US fiscal stimulus should provide the fuel for a stellar second half of 2021 for developed economies. But roaring growth could also bring risks.
History provides only a limited guide to the implications of ESG factors for returns. We look at the conclusions that can be drawn from the past, and how investors can prepare for the future.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
The ECB announced measures to cushion the COVID-19 financial shock, but stopped short of cutting rates. All eyes are now on governments for a fiscal response.
The UK’s coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance and is unlikely to make any changes in the coming months.
