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At its monthly policy meeting in June, the ECB revised its growth and inflation forecasts upwards, but confirmed its “very accommodative monetary policy stance”.
At the latest Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) significantly upgraded its economic growth, inflation and employment forecasts.
At their latest semi-annual policy meeting, the MAS' comments was modestly upbeat and the central bank revised up their headline inflation target - both of which could have implications for SGD cash investments.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing council (GC) decided to “significantly increase” monthly Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) purchases over the second quarter of 2021, based on the recent evolution of financing conditions and inflation outlook.
The Bank of England (BoE) has postponed a decision on negative interest rates for at least six months with the probability of negative rates declining sharply due to the expectation of a strong vaccine-led recovery.
The surprise withdrawal of liquidity by the People’s Bank of China in the last week of January triggered a spike in short-term interest rates. Aidan Shevlin, International Head of Liquidity Fund Management, shared his perspectives on China’s monetary policy.
China’s bond market has seen an unusual wave of defaults over the past month – triggering a jump in credit spreads and raising investor concerns. Find out the implications to cash investments and why independent credit research remains important.
Read the latest review of Global Liquidity market and portfolio commentary across the Americas, Asia Pacific, as well as Europe and UK.
The recent coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China has increased investors’ trepidation and financial market uncertainty.
An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods
Our February and March Eye on the Market pieces discussed shrinking US excess capacity, fiscal stimulus and the contortions people gyrate into to convince themselves that rising inflation would not be a problem for equity markets. My conclusion at the time: expectations for permanently low inflation and rates drove the rise in P/E multiples in recent years, so a reversal in inflation and rate expectations poses a risk to them. Since March, US equity markets hit a plateau as inflation expectations reached their highest levels in a decade. This Eye on the Market addresses questions we’re receiving on markets, inflation, rates and capital gains taxes, and concludes with comments on COVID and India.
Even as the world becomes more energy efficient each year, overall levels of CO2 emissions continue to rise. Without decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to fossil fuels for longer than they would like.
Topics: Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.
The Smalligarchy: how the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war era; a discussion of the investment implications of physical and human infrastructure bills; the US economy approaches lift off; and the latest news on Morone saxatilis.
If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.
Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.
The SPAC capital raising boom, and why Biden’s early stage energy policies are more likely to increase oil imports rather than reduce emissions.
Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.
Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.
The Jan 6 Joint Session of Congress is shaping up to be a very contentious meeting. Here’s a brief 2-page primer on the rules of engagement, for those interested.
The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.
The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th. See pages 4-6 for a review of all the rules and procedures in play, including an update from Wayne County MI, and a hyperlink you may need this Thanksgiving.
For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance).
During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation in an effort to invalidate votes, with a special focus on the treatment and counting of absentee ballots. In this brief note, we review the election rules, legal issues, court precedents and election permutations which all lead to one place: Pennsylvania, whose state legislature holds the key to whether the Congress will have to sort out multiple slates of electors in early January.
As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for intense legal battles in the courts, and also analyzing the market-related policies under control of the Executive Branch that Presidents can implement on their own without legislative approval: energy policy, some healthcare changes, China trade policy, immigration, Iran, antitrust policies and net neutrality.
We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets regardless of the election’s outcome: The United States vs Google, Europe vs COVID, and China vs US COVID aftermath.
The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, shares weekly insight and analyses on data covering the impacts COVID-19.
Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
Could carbon prices be about to rise? Market strategist Vincent Juvyns looks at the increasing regulatory pressures on carbon pricing, and assesses the potential impact on markets
With the recovery supported by loose monetary and fiscal policy, Global Market Strategist Jai Malhi asks whether the balance of risk has shifted towards higher inflation.
With Covid cases falling, excess household savings and US fiscal stimulus should provide the fuel for a stellar second half of 2021 for developed economies. But roaring growth could also bring risks.
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
Rapidly rising incomes in vast populations are set to make Asia the largest contributor to global growth in the 2020s. For investors, the opportunity looks too big to ignore.
History provides only a limited guide to the implications of ESG factors for returns. We look at the conclusions that can be drawn from the past, and how investors can prepare for the future.
Explore the strategies that can help investors maintain income and diversification in a post-Covid world of low interest rates and negative government bond yields.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
Joe Biden’s presidency is expected to bring increased momentum on tackling climate change. Carbon intensity is likely to become an increasingly important metric in investment decisions.
Successful vaccine rollout should drive an economic rebound as pent-up spending is unleashed. We assess the timings and market implications.
It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal.
A Covid-19 vaccine could be a game changer for the global economy and markets. Global Market Strategist, Mike Bell highlights three areas that could continue to benefit should a vaccine be approved.
This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.
Discover how the trade disruption between the US and China due to the pandemic and rising political tensions affect the investment case for Chinese assets.
The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key monetary policy instruments at today’s meeting.
After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.
The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.
While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.
The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.
The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.
Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.
The ECB announced measures to cushion the COVID-19 financial shock, but stopped short of cutting rates. All eyes are now on governments for a fiscal response.
The UK’s coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
Demographics, debt, and equities have caused past stagnation of the Japanese economy. Discover whether Europe’s similarities could lead to the same fate.
Brexit uncertainty is not over. But that wasn’t the only thing holding back UK stocks, and investors could be tempted back to the market.
The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance and is unlikely to make any changes in the coming months.
