Asset Class Views

Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2023

As growth and inflation moderate and the U.S. economy shows resilience, we favor carry trades, relative value positions and manager selection alpha above bold directional calls. We modestly overweight duration and remain neutral on equities.

Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2023

Recession and Sub Trend Growth are now our equal-weighted base cases at 50% each. We reduced the probability of Recession by 5% and increased the likelihood of Sub Trend Growth by 10%. Our top pick: short-duration securitized credit.

Global Equity Views 4Q 2023

Our portfolio managers are taking a somewhat conservative view of the outlook, with average returns in prospect. We favor quality industrial and technology companies but remain cautious about paying too much for the “expensive defensive” groups.

Factor Views 4Q 2023

Despite shifting regimes and changing market conditions, factors enjoyed another strong quarter. The equity value and equity quality factors rallied, signaling that investors were more focused on company fundamentals than earlier in 2023.

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