How might the balance of power shift in Congress after the midterms?
With the midterm elections fast approaching, how might the power shift in Washington, and how should investors prepare?
We’ve all seen how Sustainable Investing and ESG themes have captured the headlines and investor attention. To help you understand the key implications, and to facilitate conversations with clients, we have launched the 7 Essentials of ESG, a new infographic from our Market Insights team.
Anticipating subtrend growth well into 2023, we remain neutral duration and overweight cash. We underweight equities, expecting meaningful earnings downgrades. We take a neutral stance on credit, with a clear preference for investment grade over high yield.
Recession is our base case scenario, at 50%. We raised the likelihood of Crisis to 15% while lowering Sub Trend Growth to 30% and Above Trend Growth to 5%. We’re using market rallies to reduce our interest rate exposure and credit risk. Our best idea: high quality, short-dated cash flows.
The factors that we favor held up well in a challenging 3Q 2022 market environment: Equity momentum, merger arbitrage and macro carry were all positive, and losses across other factors were relatively limited. We maintain our positive outlook for equity factors, which appear cheap.