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Guide to the Markets

Comprehensive insights on all the latest global economic and market developments.

Featured insights

2024 Elections

Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Eye on the Market

Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

On Investors' Minds - APAC Edition

Listen to the latest insights from Tai Hui to better understand what is happening in the financial markets from our Asia Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong

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LATEST COMMENTARY

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.

Potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Policy recalibration kicks off with a 50bp rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

What are the key policy implications in the 2024 presidential race?

In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Cuts are coming

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

What are the potential implications of the U.S. Election for emerging markets?

With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

Global trade: navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.

Is it still a good time to be a lender in private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.

The decimal and the dot

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Locking in yields as central banks dial back tight monetary policies

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.

Mid-Year Outlook 2024

In our 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, we address 10 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.

A tight outcome for India’s elections

This paper discusses the election results in India, and the investment implications of short-term valuation challenges and long-term positive prospects.

There’s still a case for Asian equities

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, discusses why investors should take an active approach towards Asian equities in mitigating currency risks.

The investment implications of U.S. federal debt

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Qiu, discusses investment implications of rising U.S. federal debt and widening deficits.

2024 U.S. earnings off to a solid start

This paper discusses why U.S. 1Q24 earnings have been better than expected, and broadening profit growth should present opportunities outside of the Magnificent 7.

The latest inflation and job market trends in the U.S.

This paper discusses the broader outlook for inflation and the labor market, following the April jobs report in the U.S.

Rate cuts delayed, but not denied

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. Elections

Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.

Commodities: Reasons behind the recent surges in gold and copper

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the recent surges in gold and copper, and why commodity strategies can help protect portfolios when both stocks and bonds are correcting.

A rough sea needs a steady ship

This paper discusses the expected delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and when the current wave of volatility could eventually subside.

China economy: Imbalanced recovery

This paper addresses the latest Chinese economic data and the factors that may contribute to China markets trending higher.

Is there value in European equities?

This paper discusses the relative valuation of European equities, and the factors that could suggest a more constructive outlook for the region's equity market.

Will exit activity improve in private equity?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the current performance and outlook of private equity market with subdued exit activity.

Patiently preparing to ease

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Is there still value in India?

This paper addresses why strong and consistent earnings growth, structural reforms and the likelihood of political continuity further enhances India's appeal in spite of rich valuations.

Bank of Japan lift off: Symbolic but still a lot of questions

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the key highlights of the Bank of Japan's March monetary policy meeting and what it means for the economy.

EM Equities: Inching out of the shadows

This paper discusses the macro factors in emerging markets that can drive a potential market rally once the Fed starts to cut and the U.S. dollar turns.

China NPC review: Policy announcements in line with market expectations

This paper summarizes the key objectives set out in the government work report at China’s National People’s Congress, which were broadly in line with expectations.

Solving for Fixed Income

Solving for Fixed Income explores how the current environment has affected fixed income's traditional role and the many other opportunities that can accomplish its traditional objectives.

What has the Fed done in election years?

With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.

Asian economies riding the tech wave

Continued demand for AI technologies from mega-cap companies should benefit Asian exporters that are involved in the regional tech supply chains.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

The key to successful investing isn’t predicting the future, it’s learning from the past and understanding the present. We present time-tested strategies.

Will the Bank of Japan derail the Japanese equity bull run?

This paper, written by Tai Hui discusses why Japanese equities could remain strong despite the potential tightening in monetary policy.

Is this the time for U.S. small caps?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Jennifer Qiu, discusses how quality balance sheets and margins continue to support U.S. large caps in spite of favorable small cap valuations.

Should investors be bullish or bearish on US equities?

While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.

What does it take for the Fed to cut?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the history of monetary easing and our expectations of Fed policy in 2024. (6-minute read)

Opportunities in Asia fixed income

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid, discusses the expected weakening of the U.S. dollar and the inflation deceleration in Asia, which presents an opportunity in Asia fixed income

What will drive international equity performance this year?

International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.

Investing in an election year

Presidential elections always add an extra element of uncertainty to investing, and after a halcyon 2023 in equity markets, could come as a shock to investors. On top of assessing the path of the Federal Reserve, the stability of profits and the consumer, and navigating economic resilience vs. recession, investors will have to grapple with the barrage of headlines about the 2024 election.

China economy: stay patient for policy catalyst

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.

How much does policy influence sector performance?

Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.

The investment outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024.

How sectors perform under Republicans vs. Democrats

Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.

Are investors too dovish now?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the factors that could trigger rate cuts and policy outlook with its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Pivoting to a prolonged pause

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Understanding small cap valuations

This paper, written by Tilmann Galler and Natasha May, discusses the outlook of small cap stocks and the investment implications.

China’s bumpy road to recovery

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2024 Elections

Guide to the Markets

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Kerry Craig

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Marcella Chow

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Chaoping Zhu

Ian Hui

Raisah Rasid

Fumiaki Morioka

Jennifer Qiu

Adrian Wong

Kerry Craig

Tai Hui

Marcella Chow

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Chaoping Zhu

Ian Hui

Raisah Rasid

Fumiaki Morioka

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