With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, the prospects for near-term economic growth.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
Economists and analysts reacting to the deal have been pretty skeptical. I have aggregated representative responses below. I will give you my thoughts afterwards.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
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Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
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ASF has been ravaging China’s pigs since August 2018, with the disease shrinking China’s domestic pig herd by 40-50%, according to Gabriela Santos.
This equity market rally is driven by several factors – Fed easing, fears of a recession and what can be characterized as a trade truce, says David Lebovitz.
We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.