Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
The topic of trade remains front of mind for investors, businesses and consumers. This year, online searches for the words “trade” and “tariffs” have surged to levels not seen at any point over the past 15 years.
As of last week, the partial government shutdown is officially the longest shutdown on record.
In 2020, the hunt for yield is likely to continue.
Last year, buybacks were all the rage; this year, the pace of share repurchases has slowed, but the pace of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has accelerated.
Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.