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Each quarter, in the midst of earnings season, we write a market bulletin focused on U.S. corporate profitability.
With the U.S dollar having strengthened 6.6% in the last six months, investors are beginning to question whether the dollar has fundamentally changed direction after declining in 2017.
The 2Q18 earnings season has begun, with the major banks kicking things off at the end of last week. We expect many of the themes that dominated earnings announcements in the first quarter to continue in the second
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
With more and more companies now privately held, investors have shifted their focus to how they can exit these investments and get their money back.
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
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The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.