The 2Q18 earnings season has begun, with the major banks kicking things off at the end of last week. We expect many of the themes that dominated earnings announcements in the first quarter to continue in the second
EURUSD should be rangebound
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
Last week’s employment report showed the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a multi-decade low. With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, in
Equity solutions for volatile markets
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
One of the most perplexing things about the recent stock market rally is that it has occurred against a backdrop of equity fund outflows and bond fund inflows. In fact, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), from the end of 3Q18 through the