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The investment outlook for 2019: Late-cycle risks and opportunities
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
With more and more companies now privately held, investors have shifted their focus to how they can exit these investments and get their money back.
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
The key, is to focus on high conviction ideas that are supported by structural tailwinds. However, many of these investments are tied to the technology sector.
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly