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Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
In 2020, the hunt for yield is likely to continue.
Last year, buybacks were all the rage; this year, the pace of share repurchases has slowed, but the pace of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has accelerated.
This greater economic stability should bolster international earnings expectations, halting the decline seen over the past 18 months.
Global trade tensions may continue into 2020, weighing on global growth and acting as a headwind for further equity market gains.
With more and more companies now privately held, investors have shifted their focus to how they can exit these investments and get their money back.
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.