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Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
Last week’s employment report showed the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a multi-decade low. With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, in
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Dr. David Kelly discusses the trade battle between China and the United States and its impact on investment portfolios.