The investment outlook for 2019: Late-cycle risks and opportunities
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
As of last week, the partial government shutdown is officially the longest shutdown on record.
With more and more companies now privately held, investors have shifted their focus to how they can exit these investments and get their money back.
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Dr. David Kelly discusses the trade battle between China and the United States and its impact on investment portfolios.