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Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
This greater economic stability should bolster international earnings expectations, halting the decline seen over the past 18 months.
Global trade tensions may continue into 2020, weighing on global growth and acting as a headwind for further equity market gains.
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.