The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
Market participants remain focused on downside risks, leading pessimism, rather than optimism, to permeate the investment landscape
Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump May 5 helped to dash that optimism.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.