Listen to previous series on a variety of investment topics, asset classes and current themes
The investment outlook for 2019: Late-cycle risks and opportunities
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
Since the financial crisis, for a relatively liquid investment CLOs consistently have had the highest spreads net of capital costs for US life insurers.