The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
The growing amount of negative yielding debt overseas is weighing down on U.S yields as Treasuries become the best house in a bad neighborhood.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
Investors are concerned about the deterioration of corporate debt quality.
The current earnings season has been mixed; lower energy prices and a stronger dollar are headwinds, but health care sector M&A is providing an offset.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
Vincent Juvyns and Alex Dryden discuss economic growth in the eurozone and the potential impacts of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has called a halt to the balance sheet reduction program earlier, and at a higher terminal level, than investors first anticipated.
At its July meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates for the first time since December 2008.
Equities continue to look attractive relative to fixed income, and could very well move higher in the short-term given firmer economic data and a Fed on hold.