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The investment outlook for 2019: Late-cycle risks and opportunities
Momentum investing is a strategy which looks at relative trailing 6- and 12- month price performance when determining which stocks to overweight. 2018 has been a good year for momentum stocks, which are up an impressive 11.4%*.
Each quarter, in the midst of earnings season, we write a market bulletin focused on U.S. corporate profitability.
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
EURUSD should be rangebound
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.