Lending, borrowing and investing in a negative rate world
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.
Markets, economy, stocks, growth, global, fixed income, international, asset classes
We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
Bond yields remain at or near historic lows around the world, leading to a substantial increase in the value of pension plan liabilities.
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In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
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Investors are concerned about the deterioration of corporate debt quality, marked by lower credit ratings and a large share of covenant-lite issuance in the loan market.
David Kelly, the Fed, interest rates