Armageddonists and the portfolio cost of fear, 2010-2019
With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, the prospects for near-term economic growth.
For investors peering into 2020, it is likely that U.S. monetary policy will remain on hold for the time being.
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers��� investments in CMLs.
Relaunching a new phase of QE could be interpreted as a signal that the U.S. economic outlook is dire.
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
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The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.