Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
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Implications for passive bond allocations
Monday’s spike in the repo rate is not extraordinarily worrisome, given both the context surrounding its timing and the availability of potential remedies.
Following this shake-up, the odds of a no-deal Brexit, not so long ago a strong possibility from the hardline Conservative administration, have declined.
Without a dramatic improvement in the next few weeks the Fed will likely be forced into further rate cuts before the end of the year.
The growing amount of negative yielding debt overseas is weighing down on U.S yields as Treasuries become the best house in a bad neighborhood.