Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
EM should continue to provide a substantial economic growth alpha relative to developed markets due to better demographics and a productivity catch-up.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors.
In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.