There are still questions surrounding when the recession will officially begin, this is something we will only know with hindsight, says David Lebovitz.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
Armageddonists and the portfolio cost of fear, 2010-2019
The U.S. Senate passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill, these measures can’t prevent a recession but should sustain the economy in suspended animation says Kelly
Supply disruptions out of Iran will be offset by an increase in production from other OPEC+ countries, according to Jordan Jackson.