While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
The rise in support for populist parties in the European elections has done nothing for the popularity of European risk assets. Should investors ditch Europe, or does this represent a buying opportunity?
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?