As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
Last week’s employment report showed the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a multi-decade low. With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, in
Trade barriers, once constructed, are not easy to remove and their implementation is likely provide a slower backdrop for financial market performance.
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.
The paper discusses the pportunities and risks that institutions should consider when investing in China’s A-Share and private equity markets.
Lending, borrowing and investing in a negative rate world
We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.