Traditional macroeconomic models run the risk of overstating potential global growth by not adequately accounting for natural resource constraints and climate change.
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Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
"We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations. "
I went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world. I ended up halfway around the globe from where I began. A story in pictures.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
EM currencies have struggled when the PMI has been falling, and thus its equity returns have underperformed versus the U.S. and other developed markets.
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates.
In today’s investment environment rates are lower, this inflates the value of future cash flows and pushes equity market multiples higher.