Given current and projected productivity and labor supply dynamics, productivity is unlikely to provide a significant lift to future growth.
Emerging market debt is underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop, but the local index is at all-time tights. A differentiated approach seems warranted.
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.
Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
Optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and data releases suggesting recent global industrial weakness may have bottomed, lifted risk assets in November.
European high yield spreads are still above their long-term tights, but that doesn’t take quality into account. Are fundamentals robust enough to justify taking more risks?
We may not be outright US dollar bulls, but fundamentals and quantitative valuation factors both suggest that investors are currently too negative on the currency.
Core bond yields have pushed higher since the end of October. Is the move warranted by a shift in the fundamental picture, and where could we go from here?
What would a Conservative government mean for sterling?
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.