While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
It is time to adopt a more diversified and thoughtful approach that recognizes the importance of valuations and relies less on that most naïve of all assumptions - the prospect of wisdom from Washington.
While U.S. equities still look less expensive than Treasuries and cash, they are not as attractive as they once were. Investors looking for stronger long-term returns may find a better opportunity in European